50p...dinner plate...50p...dinner plate. The race to Medinah is on

In exactly six months' time we will know the make-up of the European team to take on the US at the 2012 Ryder Cup at Medinah, a course well-versed in staging major tournaments (the US PGAs of 1999 and 2006 most recent in the memory). Following the conclusion of the WGC Matchplay, the first real opportunity to see who might suit the matchplay conditions of the Ryder Cup, here is a look at who is leading the race to make the team, who is knocking on the door and, perhaps controversially, who should be concerned about missing out on this great event.

The European qualification process has, following the 2010 experiment of three wildcard choices, reverted back to its previous incarnation - the leading five players from the European Points List (EPL), the leading five players from the World Points List (WPL) not already qualified via the EPL plus two wildcard selections made by J-M Olazabal. The players have until the conclusion of the Johnnie Walker Championships at Gleneagles to make the team so, in six months time, we will know who's getting their kit measured.

Looking at the EPL and WPL, as of this morning, the tables do have a set of familiar faces interspersed with some surprises.

It's no real surprise to see Rory McIlroy sat atop both lists - he has certainly started this season extremely well and, despite running out of puff last night against Hunter Mahan, he is looking a decent bet to take home some impressive silverware this year and, as I predicted at the end of last year, end the 2012 season as world #1.

Alongside the other usual suspects, namely Messrs Kaymer, Westwood & Donald, there are a handful of players whom many would not have predicted to be appearing on these lists.

Sergio Garcia suffered a well-documented slump in his form and enjoyment of the game of golf, to the extent that he missed out on the 2010 Ryder Cup, volunteering to be an assistant to Montgomerie late in the day. His infectious smile and enthusiasm for the game renewed, it will be great to see him back in the team, returning to a track which holds such fond memories for him as a teenager in 1999.

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano has had a good start to this season and currently sits just outside the top-50 in the world. He needs to qualify and play well at the majors to be taken as a serious contender for the team and, to be honest, I don't believe this form will last long enough to keep him there. On the evidence of the WGC Matchplay, he is not scared to chat about his prospects, declaring ahead of their 1st round clash that Tiger Woods was beatable. He absolutely was beatable on that day, and in his subsequent matches, but F-Castano was unable to close the deal and that, for me, is a worry.

Alvaro Quiros is, in the nicest possible way, a strange phenomenon. He has talent in bucketloads (not to mention outrageous power), as he demonstrated by winning the 2011-season ending Dubai Championship, but he also has the ability to put the ball in problematic places particularly off the tee. In the pressure cooker of the Ryder Cup this could be an issue, especially in the foursomes matches when alternate shots are played. He won't be thanked if he is leaving his partner with cabbage-based second shots at important moments in the match. That said, I think he has the game to prevail this year so I do expect him to qualify by right.

Justin Rose is another player whose presence in an automatic slot is a bit of a surprise. Since winning the European Order of Merit in 2007 (god, is it that long ago?) his career has been a bit of a rollercoaster; an extended dry spell away from the winners circle followed by high profile victories (such as the 2011 BMW Championship). He ended the 2011 Fedex Cup standings in 5th place. He is clearly keen to add to his appearance at the 2008 Ryder Cup and, for me, he would be a valuable addition to the team. The key will be his qualification by right - as I will outline later, there are some big players outside the team right now who would be pushing for a wildcard pick so I feel Rose will need to qualify direct to make the team. If he can recreate his form from 2010 (2 wins) then he's got a fair chance, depending what results other contenders can produce.

So what about the players who are just outside the automatic qualification spots? And what about those who might be considered 'high-profile casualties' if they miss out on the team?

Robert Rock (14th on EPL and 13 on WPL) is threatening to have an amazing year, with a fantastic effort to put world #8 Stevie Williams Adam Scott out of the WGC in round 1. He seems to have quietly crept up on the world of golf from nowhere so it would be great to see him continue his form and get involved in the team. I like the way he goes about his business - no fuss, no drama and he has a dogged determination which would serve him well in the Ryder Cup format. I am expecting him to maintain his form, perform well at the Open and qualify for the team by right.

A major player in the top ten of both lists, but outside the automatic places, is the 2010 US Open champion & hero of Celtic Manor, Graeme McDowell. By general consensus, 2011 was a less than stellar year for the Ulsterman although, with a change of bats and coming off the year he had in 2010, it was always going to be a stretch to maintain that level for a successive season. Having been disappointed in G-Mac during 2011, I have been greatly encouraged by his early season play in 2012. Although he was beaten in the first round of the WGC by YE Yang, he produced six birdies and played some impressive golf, hopefully putting himself back on the right path for success this year. Somehow, it wouldn't seem right if he didn't make the team but he is going to need to produce the goods at the main events to guarantee a direct position in the team. I believe he will have a couple of top tens in the majors so he should be safe.

Miguel-Angel Jimenez, the cigar-smoking, rioja-drinking playboy of Spanish golf, is just outside the markers at # 15 on the EPL & 21 on the WPL. In beating his compatriot Garcia at the WGC, he showed that none of his competitive fire has been lost and I see him continuing the form he showed at the end of 2011 and qualifying outright.

I wrote previously about the 'unfortunate' nature of Paul Casey's injury and, for me, he is going to struggle to be involved this time around (currently 41st on EPL; 19 on WPL). Missing out on a wildcard pick in 2010, in favour of the desperately out of form Padraig Harrington, was a tough break for Casey - this time, I feel his game will take too long to come back from what was, ultimately, an avoidable injury.

Ross Fisher made his Ryder Cup debut at Celtic Manor and, to his credit, he played pretty well and made important contributions throughout. He is currently at 63rd and 75th in the EPL and WPL respectively and is, I feel, out of the mix for Medinah. He made an equipment change in the close season and, to be brutal, it isn't working out well at the moment. Quite what the motivation was for dumping the quality, pedigree and history of Titleist for the corporate dollar technical innovations at Nike, I don't know, but it's not doing him any favours right now.

Ian Poulter has, I fear, a real problem. He is my favourite player and has, in his three previous Ryder Cup appearances, performed extremely well and made vital points at vital times. Most importantly, he has the ability to deliver when it really matters and when he promises to do so. He has a reputation as a feared matchplay competitor and his love for this competition has seen him branded Mr Ryder Cup, so the thought of this event going ahead without his presence is almost unimaginable. However, something isn't quite clicking on the golf course with Mr P and, on the current track, he is going to be relying on J-MO granting him a captain's pick because he won't qualify from where he is now. His exit from the WGC at the first hurdle was a surprise and a disappointment, most of all to the man himself. His nibble back at Bruce Critchley's comments on his off-course activities betrayed a hint of truth to what Critchley had said - there is a lot going on for him away from the golf course (Poulter himself admitted that his well-documented house build was a distraction in 2011), not least the arrival of child #4, so I fear the prospect of Poulter being involved will require J-MO to take a leap of faith not unlike Montgomerie took with Harrington in 2010. He needs to be in the team; the team needs him and I fully expect him to be picked.

My final prospect is a little left-field but one which does at least have some supporting evidence. Martin Laird proved at the WGC that he has a strong matchplay ability and, despite his current positions of 55 and 29 on the EPL & WPL, he should not be discounted as a wildcard choice. He would add a different dimension to the team - playing on the PGA Tour means he will get to see many of his opponents regularly and he is coming into form & confidence at just the right time to push for his inclusion. I don't feel he will be able to do enough to finish in the top end of the points lists, so he will be relying on a captain's pick.

So, having polished my crystal ball I can declare my picks for the European team at the 2012 Ryder Cup to be:


1. Rory McIlroy
2. Martin Kaymer
3. Paul Lawrie
4. Lee Westwood
5. Alvaro Quiros
6. Luke Donald
7. Sergio Garcia
8. Graeme McDowell
9. Robert Rock
10. Miguel-Angel Jimenez
11. Ian Poulter
12. Martin Laird

Any comments/discussion on the above would be most welcome!




I am the Part Time Golfer